Thoughts on the next speaker

The following is a link to a aTexas Monthly article http://www.texasmonthly.com/2008-11-01/webextra7.php about the candidates. Burt Solomons R-Denton is not mentioned in the article. He just recently declared his candidacy. Solomons (chair of Financial Institutions) and Keffer (chair of Ways & Means) are the most likely to defeat Craddick.

Speaker Tom Craddick, R-Midland:
Rep. Pete Gallego, D-Alpine:
Rep. Scott Hochberg, D-Houston:
Rep. Delwin Jones, R-Lubbock
Rep. Jim Keffer, R-Eastland:
Rep. Tommy Merritt, R-Longview:Rep. Alan Ritter, D-Nederland:
Rep. Senfronia Thompson, D-Houston:
Speaker Pro Tem, Rep. Sylvester Turner, D-Houston:

None of the Democrats have a snowball's chance so you can mark them off. Maybe Gallego. Gallego is an even keel somewhat non-controversial guy, but he's fighting a 76-74 R/D disadvantage so he has to convince some R's to vote for a D and convince the 10 Craddick-D's to abandon their privileged position and hope for a victory, neither R or D scenario is likely for Gallego.

Senfronia is a loose cannon and a crazy woman. Ritter is still too small time and new and can't marshal the support needed to win. Hochberg is the smartest of the bunch but seems a bit too weak-willed to hold the big gavel. His intelligence and sense of fair play will doom him. Sylvester is almost certainly a shill for Craddick and will throw all of his support to the current speaker.

Of the remaining R's (other than Keffer and Solomons), Delwin Jones is 84 years old. His time has passed. Merritt is a bit of a clown who no one takes seriously and he's not the sharpest tack in the drawer.

Keffer and Solomons would have to combine whatever support they might have to have enough votes to topple Craddick. However, if they did that then one or the other would have to kneel and kiss the other's ring. Keffer isn't likely to kneel to Solomons because Keffer already is chair of the Ways & Means committee which is second in power to the Appropriations Committee. All Keffer can do is take one step up. It might not be worth the risk to fall so far if he fails since he would almost certainly lose his committee chair for challenging the king, whether directly in an attempt to be speaker or in support of another challenger.

It's a similar scenario for Solomons. He already has a moderately powerful committee chairmanship which he would lose if he fails to defeat Craddick. To fall from fairly close to the top of the pack to the bottom of the R's may not be so appealing.

Some of these speaker challenges may simply be a trial run for the next session. It's possible that Craddick will be signing out after this session. He has been in the Texas House for 40 years. What more can he do? Keffer and Solomons could be testing the waters for a battle next session. If Craddick retires, you can add Brian McCall R-Plano and maybe Jim Pitts R-Waxahachie to the mix, and whatever D's may want to play depending upon the split among the 150 members.

I just don't see the Craddick-D's giving up their chairs just to take a chance on a different R. I don't see the top R's losing their position to take a chance on another R. And, many of the freshman R's have already committed to Craddick.

What else to say? Those who talk, don't know. And those who know, don't talk.

mejores deseos, paz, y tranquilidad

Raphael Hythloday